The Institute for Energy Security (IES) has forecast a notable decline in local pump prices for all petroleum products during the second pricing window of March 2025. The IES predicts that gasoline prices will fall by 4.5%, gasoil by 3.2%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 4.5%.
This anticipated reduction stems from substantial declines in global fuel market prices observed during the first pricing window of March 2025. According to IES data, international prices for gasoline dropped by 9.00%, gasoil by 6.33%, and LPG by 8.98%.
Moreover, the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies has also predicted that fuel prices are set to drop for the third consecutive time this year, with petrol, diesel, and LPG expected to decrease by 4.5%, 3.8%, and 3.9% respectively.
In addition, the Ghanaian cedi experienced only a 0.19% depreciation against the U.S. dollar—its slowest rate of decline since the start of the year. The collapse of global crude oil prices has largely driven this downward trend in fuel costs. To help sustain these reductions, the IES recommends that the government consider establishing strategic fuel reserves while prices remain low.
During the first pricing window of March 2025, the local fuel market showed relative stability after a general decline in petroleum product prices in late February. While most Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) maintained their per-litre prices for both gasoline and gasoil, three OMCs implemented downward price adjustments, resulting in an average reduction of approximately GH₵0.10 for each product. Using a purposive price sampling approach, the IES computed national average prices of GH₵15.45 per litre for gasoline and GH₵15.50 per litre for gasoil, with LPG prices holding steady at GH₵18.79 per kilogram.
The projected decline in local pump prices will have a significant influence in easing pressures for commuters and traders, although it’s not clear yet if such changes would reflect in transport fares.
